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After losing 3-0 to France in their opener, the United States face the high probability of an early exit from the 2024 Olympics if they can’t take all three points against New Zealand on Saturday.
Despite losing their most prolific goalscorer Riley Bidois to a hamstring injury before the tournament, New Zealand prevailed 2-1 over Guinea in their opener. The Kiwis would advance to their second successive Olympic quarterfinals with a victory over the U.S.
Meanwhile, the Americans must earn at least a draw to remain in the competition during their first Olympics since Beijing. History isn’t on the USA’s side, as they’ve bowed out during the group stage in six of their previous seven Olympic appearances.
Entering the match as the clear favorites across our best sports betting sites, our New Zealand vs. USA odds, picks, and predictions side with the Americans.
Saturday’s match starts at 1 p.m. ET from Stade Velodrome in Marseille, France (USA Network).
New Zealand vs. USA predictions for Saturday
New Zealand vs. USA odds via our best soccer betting sites; soccer picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Final score: USA 1 – New Zealand 0 (+700) 
Duncan McGuire anytime goal scorer (+140) Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (+105)
New Zealand vs. USA score prediction
USA 1 vs. New Zealand 0
While the USA are rightful favorites entering Saturday’s contest, the disparity between the two sides isn’t as ginormous as the odds suggest.
Remember, this is an Under-23 tournament, with only three overage players permitted. All 11 of the USA’s starters play at a high level, and most ply their trade in the MLS.
New Zealand also boasts a starting 11 with some elite pedigree, but not to the extent of their opponents. Seven of the Kiwis’ 18 players compete in the New Zealand National League, a decent yet inferior domestic league.
Losing Bidois, who led the team with five goals during qualification, is a severe blow for a New Zealand side that doesn’t boast a ton of offensive depth.
Also, Miles Robinson and Walker Zimmerman are at the heart of the Americans’ defense. They’re overaged squad members with a wealth of international experience for the senior men’s side.
The +700 odds will pay a profit of $70 on a $10 wager if the USA wins 1-0.
Odds: +700 | Implied probability: 12.5%
New Zealand vs. USA anytime goal scorer prediction
Duncan McGuire, USA
Duncan McGuire has been enjoying a sterling rookie campaign with Orlando City SC, scoring 13 goals in 29 appearances before being called up to the U.S. Men’s Olympic team. While he didn’t score against an elite French defense, the 23-year-old is playing confidently after netting in two of his previous five MLS matches.
He’s tallied one goal across four matches with the Under-23 team and has made one appearance with the senior men’s side. If McGuire scores, you’ll earn $14 on a $10 bet.
Odds: +140 | Implied probability: 41.67%
New Zealand vs. USA best bet
Under 2.5 goals
With what’s at stake, this is more of a situational bet. New Zealand will be happy with a draw, while the impetus is on the USA to play on the front foot from kickoff.
The Kiwis will concede possession and play a more cautious deep line, at least in the opening 45 minutes. It will be up to the Americans to poke and prod, finding an incisive pass or a moment of brilliance to break the stalemate.
If the Americans take the lead, I don’t expect a capitulation from New Zealand. It’ll be quite the opposite. New Zealand is a seasoned soccer team at this level after competing in four of the five previous Olympics.
I expect them to show all of their shrewdness and experience, keeping the margins razor-thin. At +105, you’ll earn a $10.50 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Odds: +105 | Implied probability: 48.78%
New Zealand vs. USA odds & game info
New ZealandUSA
Moneyline+450-165Over/UnderOver 2.5 (-135)Under 2.5 (+105)Spread+0.5 (+130)-0.5 (-180)
When: Saturday, July 27Time: 1 p.m. ET Where: Stade Velodrome (Marseille, France)How to watch: USA Network, Peacock, FuboFavorite: USA (-165)
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