Source link : https://pksportsnews.com/2024/08/16/how-short-will-thorpedo-anna-go/
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Tim Sudduth / Eclipse Sportswire
With only the post positions set to be sorted for next weekend’s Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga, determining how the race will be bet is more difficult than determining who I want to bet.
I don’t envy David Aragona’s job to make this morning line. I guess champion Fierceness will be favored after beating Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy (G2). I can’t really disagree, given I see him as the most likely winner. But then what?
Sierra Leone always takes money, and he’s always burned it too. Well, not always, but certainly in his last three starts. Dornoch never takes money, at least relative to his accomplishments, but has done little wrong since his tough-luck Kentucky Derby trip, winning the Belmont and Haskell (G1) since.
Thorpedo Anna is the other one who’s certain to be among the top four wagering choices. On paper, she is the fourth-most likely winner, but what does her celebrity mean for the wagering market?
I had to make Fierceness the most likely winner on the strength of his fastest races win this every time. If he runs back to his Florida Derby (G1) or Jim Dandy, then he is the winner. Of course, we all know about his pattern of a bad race after a good one. Although I’m not sure how much I buy into that, it is reasonable to expect things will be tougher for him up front here.
Sierra Leone is consistently good enough but just seems unable to deliver that knockout punch. If the public gives him another chance, then he’s an underlay. If enough have given up on him, then he will be an overlay.
Dornoch is a horse I wanted no part of in either of his last two wins, both of which were impressive and contend against these. If the public is now a believer, then he’ll be underlaid. If they side with Sierra Leone, then Dornoch is an overlay.
Thorpedo Anna is the wild card. Visually, I’ve loved her efforts, and they’ve come back fast enough to at least be in the conversation against these. The problem is, she will have to run a career best and none of the other three favorites have to run theirs. That’s a tough equation to take too short a price, but it’s worth watching the board.
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Publish date : 2024-08-16 04:36:05
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Author : pksportsnews
Publish date : 2024-08-16 19:11:06
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